Pre‑Market Report (20 Aug 2025): GIFT Nifty soft; eyes on global tech sell‑off
Morning Snapshot
~24,966 (‑40–45 pts vs prev close) → Muted/Negative bias. 0
S&P 500 ‑0.6%, Nasdaq ‑1.5%, Dow ~flat; tech/AI led the decline. 1
Regional equities mixed to lower ahead of Jackson Hole; sentiment cautious. 2
Brent ~$65.9; USDINR futures ~87.05 (19 Aug). 3
FII ‑₹634 Cr; DII +₹2,261 Cr (cash). 4
VIX ↓ to ~11.79 (19 Aug close) — complacent tape. 5
Table of Contents
1) Global Cues: US Overnight & Asia Morning 2) GIFT Nifty & Opening Bias 3) Previous Close: Nifty, Sensex & VIX 4) FII/DII Flow & Rupee Watch 5) Key Intraday Levels (Nifty/Bank Nifty) 6) Sectoral Setup & Themes 7) Stocks to Watch Today 8) Macro & Results Calendar (20 Aug) 9) Intraday Trading Plan: Three Scenarios 10) Read Next (Internal Links) Disclaimer1) Global Cues: US Overnight
Overnight, Wall Street extended a pullback from record highs as mega‑cap tech and AI names slid. The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, the Nasdaq 1.5%, while the Dow ended roughly flat on . Investors are trimming risk ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks later this week. 6
Beyond equities, U.S. 10‑yr Treasury yields eased to ~4.30% on Tuesday, signaling a mild safety bid. Persistent focus on AI valuations and policy uncertainty continues to drive cross‑asset moves. 7
Gold prices are steadier near the low‑$3,300/oz zone in early Asia, reflecting a firmer dollar and pre‑Jackson Hole caution. 8
Asia Morning
Asian markets opened mixed‑to‑soft, mirroring the U.S. tech‑led decline and a “wait‑and‑watch” stance into central‑bank speak. Regional benchmarks and futures indicated a cautious tone across Japan, Korea, and Hong Kong. 9
Takeaway: The overnight risk‑off tone plus event‑risk near Jackson Hole implies a measured open for India.
2) GIFT Nifty & Opening Bias (as of ~07:30 IST)
Early ticks on GIFT Nifty point to a muted/negative start for Dalal Street, with futures around 24,966 (down ~40–45 pts vs prior close) at ~7:30 AM IST. Multiple trackers reflect similar readings. 10
GIST: Expect a cautious open; initial trades may be gap‑flat to marginally lower.
3) Previous Close (19 Aug)
The Nifty 50 closed at 24,980.65 (+0.42%), extending the winning streak to four sessions, while the Sensex finished at 81,644.39 (+0.46%). India VIX slipped to ~11.79, underscoring subdued volatility. 11
4) Flows & Rupee Watch
Institutional flows (19 Aug): Foreign investors (FII/FPI) were net sellers ~₹634 Cr in cash, while domestic institutions (DII) were net buyers ~₹2,261 Cr. This DII support has helped cushion dips near round numbers on the Nifty. 12
Rupee: The INR firmed on Tuesday, with spot testing ~87.21 intraday; USDINR 1‑mo NDF hovered near 87.45 into Asia, while USDINR futures on NSE (26 Aug) last showed ~87.05 (19 Aug). Brent crude remains around the mid‑$60s. Together, these suggest a narrowly range‑bound opening bias for INR. 13
5) Key Intraday Levels (20 Aug)
Nifty 50
- Immediate supports: 24,900 / 24,840 / 24,750
- Immediate resistances: 25,050 / 25,120 / 25,200
- Bias trigger: Sustained trade above 25,050 can extend pullbacks; below 24,840 opens a test of 24,750.
- Reference: Prior close 24,980.65; VIX ~11.79 (low‑vol regime) 14
Bank Nifty
- Supports: 55,400 / 55,050 / 54,750
- Resistances: 55,900 / 56,250 / 56,500
- Setup: Watch PSU vs Private bank breadth; a positive divergence there often pre‑empts index turns on low‑VIX days.
Levels are analytical reference zones derived from prior day range/structure & round‑number confluence; use with your system rules.
6) Sectoral Setup & Themes to Track
- IT: Globally weak after U.S. tech/A.I. sell‑off; look for relief only if USDINR cools and U.S. futures stabilize. 15
- Banks/Financials: Low VIX supports option‑selling strategies; monitor HDFC Bank/ICICI price leadership for index direction. 16
- Oil & Gas/OMCs: Brent in mid‑$60s keeps marketing margins comfortable; short‑term sentiment tilted neutral‑positive. 17
- Consumption: Softer inflation backdrop is supportive, though valuations rich; breadth signals matter. 18
- Defence/Capital Goods/Autos: Remain relative‑strength pockets on domestic policy push and earnings momentum (watch order wins & delivery commentary). 19
7) Stocks to Watch (20 Aug)
Pre‑open buzz (headlines flow; verify final pre‑open ticks):
- One 97 Communications (Paytm), Lloyds Metals, Info Edge — on the radar per “stocks to watch” lists today. 20
- Ramco Cements, NALCO, UltraTech, Indian Oil — developments keep these names in focus. 21
- IPO/Listing monitor: Stay tuned to jewellery/consumer tech names post‑listing/offer‑related headlines. 22
Use event‑driven risk controls (reduced size, wider buffer) around headlines & opening volatility.
8) Macro & Results Calendar—Today
- Global: Asia hours — Japan trade/machines, China LPR; later RBNZ, UK CPI, Eurozone final CPI; U.S. focus shifts to Jackson Hole later this week. 23
- India Earnings (Q1 FY26): Smaller‑cap names incl. Shanti Gold International, PVP Ventures, Morarjee Textiles, Picturehouse Media, VXL Instruments scheduled today (check exchanges for timing). 24
- Inflation/Price backdrop: July CPI eased; WPI YoY negative — supportive for rates-sensitive pockets. 25
9) Intraday Trading Plan: Three Scenarios
A) Gap‑Flat / Mild Gap‑Down Open (Higher probability)
- Let the Opening Range (OR) form; avoid trades in first 5 minutes.
- Longs only on reclaim of 25,050 with rising cumulative delta & breadth; trail below VWAP or OR low.
- Fails back under 24,980 → fade to 24,900/24,840 supports.
B) Strong Risk‑Off Continuation
- Watch early lower‑highs near VWAP; confirmation below 24,840 unlocks 24,750.
- Prefer in‑the‑money puts or bear spreads to respect low‑VIX decay; size modestly.
C) Surprise Risk‑On Reversal
- Trigger: sustained move above 25,120 + improving financials breadth.
- Targets: 25,200 → 25,260; avoid chasing extended candles — buy dips to VWAP.
Risk discipline: Max loss per day ≤ 0.5% of capital; stop trading after 2R loss or 3 consecutive losses.
10) Read Next (Internal Links)
Key Sources (time‑stamped)
- U.S. close (Aug 19): AP/Associated Press market wrap. 26
- Asia morning tone & global wrap: Reuters live coverage. 27
- GIFT Nifty ticks (around ~07:30 IST): Business‑Standard live blog; NSE pre‑open page. 28
- FII/DII cash activity (19 Aug): Trendlyne dashboard. 29
- India VIX & prior close: Business‑Standard; LiveMint daily preview. 30
- Crude & USDINR context: TradingEconomics (Brent); NSE USDINR futures; Reuters INR update. 31
- Stocks to Watch: Moneycontrol; ET Markets lists. 32
- Macro & results calendar: TradingView (global econ); Business‑Standard/LiveMint result calendars. 33
0 Comments