📅 Introduction — Market Balances Optimism and Volatility
The first week of October 2025 opened with cautious optimism on Dalal Street. Indian markets continued to consolidate near all-time highs as investors balanced strong domestic macro data with global volatility. Nifty and Sensex traded in a narrow range, reflecting indecision ahead of the Q2 earnings season and upcoming monetary policy cues.
Despite mixed global signals — rising oil prices, U.S. bond yield concerns, and geopolitical uncertainty — Indian equities demonstrated resilience. Broader markets outperformed the benchmarks, with selective mid-cap and small-cap stocks witnessing strong buying.
📈 Weekly Performance Summary
- Nifty 50: +0.42% at 24,365 (gained 102 points)
- Sensex: +0.38% at 81,740 (up 310 points)
- Bank Nifty: −0.25% at 51,920 (profit booking after rally)
- Nifty Midcap 100: +1.1%
- Nifty Smallcap 100: +1.6%
The market breadth remained positive throughout the week. Investors showed renewed interest in IT, FMCG, and auto sectors, while banks and metals saw mild profit-taking. The Nifty maintained support at 24,150 and faced resistance near 24,500.
🏦 Institutional Flow — FII/DII Data
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned net buyers of ₹1,845 crore, marking a third straight week of inflows into Indian equities. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), however, booked profits worth ₹420 crore, indicating that local funds preferred to lock in gains near record levels.
Analysts note that steady FII inflows are a sign of confidence in India’s economic growth and corporate earnings outlook, even as global investors remain cautious about developed markets.
📊 Sectoral Performance Overview
Sector rotation continued to dominate trading action. While technology and FMCG stocks led the rally, the metals and PSU banking segments remained under pressure. The Auto index rose sharply as festive-season demand expectations lifted sentiment.
| Sector | Weekly Change (%) | Highlights |
|---|---|---|
| IT | +2.3 | Infosys, TCS rebound ahead of Q2 results. |
| FMCG | +1.4 | Defensive buying amid market uncertainty. |
| Auto | +0.9 | Festive demand outlook boosts Maruti, M&M. |
| Metals | −1.7 | Weak Chinese data impacts steel and copper. |
| Banking | −0.4 | Profit booking after September rally. |
📉 Technical Analysis
The Nifty formed a “Doji” candlestick pattern on the weekly chart, indicating indecision. However, the underlying momentum remains intact as long as it stays above 24,150. RSI levels at 55 suggest a neutral bias, and the SuperTrend indicator continues to flash a buy signal.
- Nifty Support: 24,150 | Resistance: 24,500
- Bank Nifty Support: 51,700 | Resistance: 52,300
- Momentum Oscillator: Flat with positive divergence
Mid-Post Thumbnail — Weekly Overview Visual
🌏 Global Market Influence
Globally, markets were cautious ahead of the U.S. jobs data. The Dow Jones slipped 0.8%, while NASDAQ gained 0.5% on tech strength. Brent crude hovered near $92/barrel, impacting inflation expectations. Asian markets, led by Japan and South Korea, saw mild corrections as traders awaited China’s stimulus news.
📰 Domestic Triggers
- GST Collection: ₹1.75 lakh crore in September, signaling strong consumption.
- Rupee: Stable around ₹83.08/USD amid RBI intervention.
- Bond Yields: 7.11%, showing no major rate panic.
- Festive Demand: Auto, FMCG, and consumer durables to gain momentum in Q3.
🧠 Analyst Commentary
Market strategists believe that the Indian economy continues to be a bright spot globally. “Corporate earnings will likely pick up as rural demand improves and input cost pressures ease,” said News Network India Research Desk. However, short-term volatility is expected due to geopolitical risks and crude oil swings.
Technically, Nifty must hold 24,150 to maintain its bullish undertone. A breakout above 24,500 could push it toward 24,800 in the coming weeks, while a fall below 24,100 might trigger short-term profit booking.
🏅 Top 10 Gainers of the Week
| Stock | Change (%) | Key Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Infosys | +4.6 | Strong Q2 revenue guidance |
| TCS | +3.8 | Deal momentum in Europe and US |
| Maruti Suzuki | +3.1 | Festive sales boost |
| Britannia | +2.9 | Rural demand revival |
| Power Grid | +2.6 | Transmission capex outlook |
| Tech Mahindra | +2.5 | Margin recovery expected |
| ITC | +2.3 | Stable volume growth |
| Mahindra & Mahindra | +2.1 | New SUV launch success |
| HCL Tech | +2.0 | Cloud contracts pipeline |
| Nestlé India | +1.8 | Consumption resilience |
📉 Top 10 Losers of the Week
| Stock | Change (%) | Key Reason |
|---|---|---|
| JSW Steel | −2.4 | Weak China demand data |
| Tata Steel | −2.1 | Falling commodity prices |
| SBI | −1.9 | Profit-booking in PSU banks |
| HDFC Bank | −1.7 | Loan growth concerns |
| Adani Ports | −1.5 | Global freight cost rise |
| Coal India | −1.3 | Supply normalisation |
| ONGC | −1.2 | Oil price volatility |
| IndusInd Bank | −1.0 | Valuation pressure |
| Hindalco | −0.9 | Metal export dip |
| BPCL | −0.8 | Refining margin decline |
💰 Weekly View – Short Term Outlook
The market is expected to consolidate early next week before a potential breakout post Q2 results. Investors should stay stock-specific and focus on earnings-linked opportunities in IT, auto and select mid-caps. Bank Nifty could see range-bound movement between 51,700 and 52,400.
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📘 Weekly Learning Corner
Every week we share a mini lesson to enhance investor knowledge. This week’s topic is “Support and Resistance Levels.”
Support is a price zone where buying pressure emerges to halt a downtrend, while resistance is where selling pressure stops an uptrend. Identifying these levels helps traders set entry and exit targets scientifically.
🧾 Conclusion
The Indian market remains fundamentally strong heading into the second quarter earnings season. Volatility will offer buying opportunities for disciplined investors. Maintain a balanced portfolio with exposure to IT, auto and FMCG while booking profits in overheated small-caps.
❓ FAQs — Weekly Market Wrap (30 Sept – 5 Oct 2025)
1. Why did Bank Nifty underperform this week?
Profit-booking after September’s rally and flat loan growth outlook led to mild pressure in banking stocks.
2. Which sectors show promise for next week?
IT and FMCG remain favorable as defensive plays, while auto could continue its festive momentum.
3. Is this a good time to enter mid-caps?
Selective mid-caps with strong earnings visibility offer potential, but avoid over-leveraged names.
4. What levels should traders watch on Nifty?
Support at 24,150 and resistance around 24,500 remain key zones for short-term direction.
Labels: Weekly Market Wrap, Stock Market Report India, Nifty Analysis 2025, Sensex Update, Bank Nifty Outlook
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