Market Outlook (1–5 Sept 2025): Key Levels, Global Cues, FII Flows
Weekly Preview
The week of 1–5 September 2025 will be crucial for Indian equities as traders return from a volatile August expiry. With Nifty ending the last week flat near 24,700, investors will look for clear direction from global markets, institutional flows, and macroeconomic triggers. While IT and FMCG remain strong, weakness in banks and metals could weigh on indices. Volatility is expected to remain high.
Global Market Cues
Global cues will play a major role. U.S. markets are holding near record highs led by tech. Europe remains pressured by energy costs and trade risks. Asian peers are mixed with Nikkei stable, while Hang Seng and Shanghai trade weak. Commodities like crude ($78/bbl) and gold ($1,985/oz) remain key sentiment drivers.
Nifty, Sensex & Bank Nifty Levels
| Index | Support | Resistance | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,400 / 24,250 | 24,900 / 25,000 | Range-bound with bullish bias |
| Sensex | 80,400 | 81,500 | Likely consolidation |
| Bank Nifty | 54,800 / 54,200 | 55,800 / 56,000 | Weakness may persist |
Sectoral Outlook
IT & FMCG
IT and FMCG sectors remain in focus as defensives. Infosys, TCS, HUL, and ITC may attract fresh buying. Weak rupee supports IT margins.
Banks & Financials
Banks may continue to face FII pressure. HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank weak; SBI and PSU banks resilient. Bank Nifty needs to hold 54,800 for recovery.
Metals & Autos
Metals vulnerable on tariff concerns. Tata Steel, Hindalco weak. Autos like Maruti may see festive-driven demand support.
Pharma
Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy’s may see buying interest as defensives remain in play.
FII / DII Flows
FIIs sold ₹20,000 cr last week; trend may extend unless global risk appetite improves. DIIs are expected to continue supporting with steady inflows into equity markets.
Trading Strategy for Next Week
- Adopt buy-on-dips near 24,500 with targets of 24,850–25,000.
- Stay light on Bank Nifty; avoid heavy leverage unless above 55,800.
- Focus on IT, FMCG, Pharma for stability.
- Avoid aggressive longs in metals until tariff clarity emerges.
Key Takeaways
- Nifty support 24,400, resistance 25,000 for the week.
- Global cues (US tech, crude, tariffs) will guide sentiment.
- IT, FMCG, Pharma sectors remain strong.
- Banking sector weak; FIIs continue selling pressure.
- Traders advised to stay cautious with range-bound view.
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