Intraday Technical Analysis & Prediction: Nifty & Sensex | June 16, 2025
• Nifty 50 (NSE): 24,897.15 (–3.20 | –0.01%)
• Sensex (BSE): 81,639.62 (–28.26 | –0.03%)
Chart Sources: NSE India, BSE India TradingView Widgets
1. Key Levels & Indicator Outlook
After a sharp early-morning rally, both Nifty and Sensex have entered a consolidation phase. The 5-minute candlesticks combined with the 9-period EMA (Exponential Moving Average) provide a clear picture of current market bias.
- Immediate Resistance: Nifty → 24,920 | Sensex → 81,700
- Immediate Support: Nifty → 24,880 | Sensex → 81,600
- EMA 9 (5-min): Nifty ≈ 24,899.36 | Sensex ≈ 81,661.37
- Volume Profile: Uptick in volumes on the rally; tapering volumes on pullbacks—indicates healthy consolidation, not strong distribution.
2. Market Drivers & Global Cues
Domestic indices are being influenced by both local traders and global sentiment:
- U.S. Economic Data: Recent retail sales and industrial output figures came in line with estimates, keeping Wall Street range-bound overnight.
- Crude Oil Prices: Stabilized near $80/barrel—energy-heavy indices finding support.
- FIIs & DIIs Flows: FIIs remained net buyers in the last two sessions; DIIs are marginally net sellers, balancing out direction.
- Sectors in Focus: Banking (HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank) and IT (Infosys, TCS) leading the early advance.
- RBI Rate Outlook: Softening WPI inflation for April increases chances of a pause in the next policy review, underpinning market sentiment.
3. Intraday Trading Strategies & Predictions
3.1 Bullish Scenario
If Nifty holds above the 24,880 pivot and reclaims the EMA-9 band (~24,900), expect a resumption of buyers targeting 24,920–24,940. A clean breakout above 24,940 can accelerate gains toward 24,980–25,000 before midday.
3.2 Bearish Scenario
Inability to sustain above 24,880 could trigger profit-booking. Monitor for a drop to 24,840; breach there may open the path to 24,800. Key psychological support at 24,760 can act as a strong buyer zone on any sharp sell-off.
3.3 Range-Bound Play
Given the declining volume on both sides, Nifty may bob between 24,880 and 24,920. Option traders can employ iron condors or butterfly spreads around ATM strikes to profit from low implied volatility.
4. Top 5 Intraday Tips
- Follow the EMA Bias: Trade in the direction of the 9-period EMA on a 5-minute chart to align with institutional flow.
- Use Strict Stop-Loss: Cap risk at 0.2%–0.3% of the index value (≈50–75 points on Nifty; 100–200 points on Sensex).
- Watch Volume Spikes: Sharp volume increases on a breakout confirm genuine momentum; low volume breakouts often fail.
- Stay Aware of Global News: Sudden Fed commentary, Asian market gaps, or Crude price moves can trigger rapid reversals.
- Position Sizing: When volatility contracts, false breakouts rise—reduce trade size until a clear directional move emerges.
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6. Conclusion & Final Prediction
Both indices have shown resilience after the morning spike, forming a tight consolidation near key EMAs. Today's outcome hinges on whether Nifty/Sensex can sustain above their respective pivot zones (24,900/81,650). A sustained move higher could propel us to the psychological 25,000/82,000 marks by afternoon, while a failure may see a retracement to the 24,840/81,600 support levels. Traders should remain nimble, employ disciplined risk management, and watch global cues for confirmation.
*Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a certified financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
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